By Ian Robertson

History is littered with nations that ignored the primary rule of warfare: Know your enemy. Canada is making this mistake with Donald Trump, not because we fail to recognize his aggression, but because we misunderstand its nature. To assume Trump’s brash persona reflects an erratic mind is a dangerous miscalculation.

Trump’s pattern over five decades — from systematically destroying internal resistance to invoking God to cornering foreign leaders on his turf — aligns too precisely with the doctrines of Sun Tzu, Machiavelli and other masters of strategy to be accidental. Instead of laughing, Canada should be learning.

What if Trump’s chaos is not a flaw but a feature? If he’s dishonest, shouldn’t we ask if we’re being played? Evidence suggests we are. By my count, of 59 principles outlined in the seminal teachings of strategic warfare — The Art of War (Sun Tzu), The Prince (Machiavelli) and The 33 Strategies of War (Green and Elfers, 2007) — Trump has demonstrated mastery of 53. His frequent and varied application of them suggests intentionality not coincidence.

For example, The Art of War opens with an unambiguous truth: “All warfare is based on deception.” Where the left portrays Trump as an undisciplined, unscrupulous megalomaniac, strategists recognize his unpredictability is a weapon, his flip-flopping situational flexibility, and his theatrics misinformation.

Ignoring the patterns of Trump’s first presidency, continuing to play a linear game and assuming orthodoxy in diplomatic negotiations may well be our downfall. There’s no risk in giving your opponent at least some credit. In fact, success demands it.

If the traits we are told to despise were liabilities, Trump would not be where he is today. Instead, his calculated disruption has produced a billion-dollar brand, crushed mainstream media and dismantled political dynasties. Either he’s incredibly lucky or we’ve got him all wrong.

Canada’s leftist leadership is trapped in confirmation bias, mistaking Trump’s persona for his strategy. If reality contradicts their progressive worldview, then it must be reality that is wrong and things will eventually correct themselves.

To keep Canada from becoming an American economic zone will require strategic sobriety. We must recognize in Trump a deliberate, calculated strategist who forces opponents into permanent instability while compelling his own side to relentless action. Whether by study or instinct, the result is the same.

The good news, according to Machiavelli, is that once a pattern is apparent it is defeatable. To nullify the strategy, first expose it. Here are three key pillars of Trump’s method.

First, create chaos and exploit disorientation. Trump mirrors the “Musashi Method,” named after the legendary samurai who never fought the same way twice. If opponents can’t predict your moves, they can’t prepare. Trump’s ability to flood the media with spectacle and contradictory narratives creates a battlefield of confusion. While opponents waste time trying to make sense of it, second-guessing their every move and expending energy reacting not executing, he’s three steps ahead.

Second, create desperation to drive action. Trump understands outrage is a renewable resource for fuelling crisis. This is the foundation for his economic blitzkrieg, swapping tanks for tariffs and infantry for sanctions and striking fast and hard to overwhelm opponents.

Third, provocation is defence. Control your enemy’s focus and they can’t attack. The best way? Force them to defend something emotionally significant but strategically irrelevant. By broaching Canada as the 51st state, Trump didn’t insult — he baited. We’ve spent more time countering rhetoric than advancing our economic position. Rather than getting down to work on pipelines, accelerating resource development and making other meaningful strategic moves, we’ve diverted energy to councils and conversation. Our most tangible progress? Slogans on hats and new versions of old TV beer ads.

To win the trade war Canada must fight Trump with a similar wartime mindset and equal strategic sophistication. We should exploit his failure to adhere to Clausewitz’s advice in On War: over-relying on deception makes you vulnerable to an opponent who can see through it and beat you at your own game. We should introduce our own misdirection on issues important to Americans, like fresh water. We should show strategic flexibility and ignore diplomatic norms to seek alliances with Greenland, Mexico and Japan. And we should exploit internal U.S. divisions with a talent offensive to encourage emigration of the best and brightest Trump has alienated.

Unconventional? Risky? Yes, and yes.  But these are unconventional and risky times.

Most importantly, Canada must prepare for the long game. Knowing Trump relies on short-term panic, we must anticipate the full arc of possibilities and develop plans for future provocations certain to come. If we fail, the U.S.’s lower corporate and personal taxes, deregulation, cheaper energy and right-to-work policies will pull businesses south. Unless we re-orient our strategic mindset we will bleed economic strength

To paraphrase the great Canadian comedian Norm Macdonald, to protect our sovereignty we must “skip past the facts and get to the truth.” Trump’s perceived weaknesses are a trap that can destroy us. The real question isn’t whether he’s a fool or genius, it’s why we are following the rules of a game he isn’t playing.

Ian Robertson is a partner with The Jefferson Hawthorne Group.

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