Variable mortgage rates catch up to fixed
Robert McLister: If Trump hurls a tariff thunderbolt at us this weekend, markets will have to rewrite their rate-cut timetables
Following our central bank’s latest quarter-point rate trim on Wednesday, Canada’s benchmark prime rate is down to 5.20 per cent. The last time we saw prime that low, countries were still in the process of reopening their borders post-COVID.
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Suddenly, variable rates are almost on par with fixed rates, and forward rates in the bond market suggest they could dip below fixed rates by spring.
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In fact, if the Bank of Canada shows borrowers more love with another rate cut, we could soon see insured variable rates start with a three.
Default-insured fixed rates are already in the threes, but you need to contact a regional lender to get them. By regional, I mean a competitive credit union or deep discount mortgage broker, many of which you’ll find in the rate table below.
Declining variable rates aside, we also saw other leading rates fall this week, including:
- A 20 basis point drop in the one-year uninsured rate
- A 13 basis point drop in hybrid rates
- A 25 basis point drop in HELOC rates
Looking ahead, forward rate data from CanDeal DNA show traders fully pricing-in another Bank of Canada rate cut, but not for about four months, give or take.
Of course, if Trump hurls a tariff thunderbolt at us this weekend, markets will have to rewrite that timetable.
Robert McLister is a mortgage strategist, interest rate analyst and editor of MortgageLogic.news. You can follow him on X at @RobMcLister.
Mortgage rates
The rates displayed below are updated by the end of each day and are sourced from the Canadian Mortgage Rate Survey produced by MortgageLogic.news. Postmedia and Imaginative. Online Inc., parent of MortgageLogic.news, are compensated by certain mortgage providers when you click on their links in the charts.
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